A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
